Why Central Bank Independence Matters to Markets
Markets trust independent central banks to fight inflation even when it hurts. What the 1970s showed about political pressure and why credibility matters.
Research · Blog
Blog
OTCN editorial market coverage.
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When Bonds Rally but Stocks Don’t, What Is the Market Saying?
Bonds rallying while stocks fall usually signals growth fears and a flight to safety. What the pattern has meant in 2008 and 2020, and when it misleads.
Why the Bank of Japan Ended Yield Curve Control
From 2016 to 2024 the Bank of Japan capped 10-year yields near zero. Why it introduced yield curve control, how it loosened it and why it ended in March 2024.
Bitcoin, Gold and the Dollar Under Market Stress
How bitcoin, gold and the US dollar behaved in recent sell-offs, from 2020 to 2026. Which acted as a haven and which traded like a risk asset, and why.
How Bitcoin ETFs Changed Who Owns Bitcoin
Since January 2024, US spot bitcoin ETFs have gathered about 6% of all bitcoin. Who holds them, why custody is concentrated and what it means for the market.
Why Best Execution Matters for Traders
Best execution requires brokers to get the most favorable terms for client orders, not just the quoted price. What it covers, how it is checked, why it matters.
Stocks, Bonds and Commodities Across the Rate Cycle
How stocks, bonds, gold and commodities have tended to behave as interest rates rise, peak and fall, and why recessions change the picture after the first cut.
How 24/7 Trading Is Changing Market Structure
Crypto never closes, and US stock exchanges are moving to 23-hour days. What longer hours change for liquidity, prices and risk, and what is unresolved.
What 2022 Taught Investors About Diversification
In 2022 stocks, bonds, real estate and bitcoin fell together while commodities rose. What happened, why traditional diversification failed and the lessons.
How the 2020 Pandemic Crash Hit Every Asset Class
In February and March 2020 stocks fell 34% in 23 trading days, oil went negative, gold and bonds wobbled and bitcoin halved in a day. A cross-asset timeline.
What Happened Across Markets in the 2008 Financial Crisis
In the 2008 crisis the S&P 500 fell 57% while Treasuries and gold rose and volatility hit record levels. A cross-asset timeline and what it taught investors.
What 1970s Inflation Teaches Today’s Markets
In the 1970s US inflation peaked at 14.8%, stocks and bonds lost money in real terms and only a 20% rate broke it. The timeline and the lessons for investors.