Small Caps vs Large Caps When Rates Start Falling
Rate cuts can help small caps through financing costs, but recession risk can reverse the trade. Compare balance sheets, earnings and market behavior.
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OTCN editorial market coverage.
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Why Markets Sometimes Rally on Bad News
Stocks can rally on weak data when lower rate expectations help valuations more than growth fears hurt earnings. The market regime decides which effect wins.
When Oil Prices Become a Problem for the Whole Economy
Oil shocks become macro problems when they hit inflation, household spending and business costs at once. The cause, speed and duration of the move matter most.
Why Recessions and Falling Stocks Don’t Always Line Up
Stocks are forward-looking while recessions are dated after the fact. That is why markets can fall before a recession and rally while one is still underway.
What the 2020–2021 Retail Trading Boom Changed
The retail trading boom changed brokerage access, options activity, social-media influence and market-structure debates. Some changes proved permanent.
Does \”Sell in May and Go Away\” Hold Up?
The Sell in May effect appeared in historical research, but later evidence is weaker. See what the seasonality means and why it is unreliable alone.
What It Means When Stocks Climb a Wall of Worry
A wall-of-worry rally happens when prices rise despite persistent fear because expectations are low. Sentiment, positioning and improving data explain it.
What Past Tech Investment Booms Suggest About AI Spending
The 1990s IT boom raised productivity but also left excess capacity. Today’s AI buildout can create real economic value while still producing overinvestment.
How Market Leadership Rotates From Decade to Decade
Market leaders change as inflation, technology, rates and profit pools change. Sector dominance can persist for years, then reverse when the regime shifts.
Why Bubbles Are So Hard to Spot in Real Time
Bubbles look obvious after they burst. In real time, strong fundamentals, changing discount rates and speculative behavior are hard to separate.
Does the January Effect Still Exist?
The January Effect was strongest in small and beaten-down stocks, but later evidence is mixed. Learn why the anomaly may have weakened over time.
How Long Bull Markets Have Lasted, and What Ended Them
Bull markets have ranged from short recoveries to decade-long advances. History shows they end for different reasons, not because they become too old.