What Happens to Stocks After a 10% Correction?
Since 1950 the S&P 500 has had about 36 to 38 corrections of 10% or more. How long they last, how often they become bear markets and what history suggests.
OTCN editorial market coverage.
Since 1950 the S&P 500 has had about 36 to 38 corrections of 10% or more. How long they last, how often they become bear markets and what history suggests.
How the S&P 500 has performed in US presidential election years since 1928, when volatility tends to rise around the vote and why the pattern is a weak guide.
A wall-of-worry rally happens when prices rise despite persistent fear because expectations are low. Sentiment, positioning and improving data explain it.
Rate cuts can help small caps through financing costs, but recession risk can reverse the trade. Compare balance sheets, earnings and market behavior.
The Sell in May effect appeared in historical research, but later evidence is weaker. See what the seasonality means and why it is unreliable alone.
The retail trading boom changed brokerage access, options activity, social-media influence and market-structure debates. Some changes proved permanent.
Stocks are forward-looking while recessions are dated after the fact. That is why markets can fall before a recession and rally while one is still underway.
Oil shocks become macro problems when they hit inflation, household spending and business costs at once. The cause, speed and duration of the move matter most.
Stocks can rally on weak data when lower rate expectations help valuations more than growth fears hurt earnings. The market regime decides which effect wins.
Market leaders change as inflation, technology, rates and profit pools change. Sector dominance can persist for years, then reverse when the regime shifts.
The 1990s IT boom raised productivity but also left excess capacity. Today’s AI buildout can create real economic value while still producing overinvestment.
Bubbles look obvious after they burst. In real time, strong fundamentals, changing discount rates and speculative behavior are hard to separate.