Macro & Policy · 07 Oct · 7 min read
What Happens to Markets When the Yield Curve Un-Inverts?
Recessions have often started after the yield curve un-inverted, not during inversion. The record since 1976, the 2024 exception and what it means.
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Why Yield Curve Steepening Can Mean Very Different Things
A steeper yield curve can signal coming rate cuts and recession risk, or rising inflation and deficit worries. Bull vs bear steepeners and what each means.
What Past Tariff Rounds Did to Currencies and Stocks
Tariff shocks have hit stocks fast, then often reversed when policies softened. What happened in April 2025, how currencies and bonds reacted and the lessons.
How Stocks Have Behaved in Past Rate-Cutting Cycles
Stocks have usually risen after the Fed's first cut when no recession followed and fallen when one did. The record since the 1980s and what it means.
Soft Landing vs Hard Landing vs No Landing
A soft landing slows inflation without a recession; a hard landing brings one; no landing means growth stays strong. How markets behave in each.
How Recession Signals Have Performed Historically
The yield curve, the Sahm rule and credit spreads had strong records, but the 2022–2024 cycle produced false alarms. How each signal has done and its limits.
What Quantitative Tightening Does to Market Liquidity
Quantitative tightening shrinks a central bank's balance sheet, draining reserves from the financial system. How QT works, what happened in 2019 and 2022–2025.
How Quantitative Easing Changed Markets After 2008
From 2008 to 2022, Fed bond buying grew its balance sheet from under trillion to about trillion. The QE timeline and what it did to rates and markets.
Why Payroll Data Can Move Bonds Before Stocks
Jobs reports change expectations for interest rates, so short-term Treasury yields often react first. How payroll data flows through bonds to stocks and crypto.
Why Global Markets Watch Japan’s Bond Market
Japanese investors hold over $3 trillion abroad and are the top foreign owners of US Treasuries. Why rising Japanese yields can move global bonds and the yen.
Inflation Surprise vs Inflation Trend: Which Moves Markets More?
On release day, the surprise versus forecasts moves prices; over months, the trend drives central banks and markets. How to read inflation data both ways.
How Fiscal Deficits Affect Rates, Currencies and Stocks
Large deficits can push up bond yields, weaken a currency and unsettle stocks when markets doubt a government's plans. The UK in 2022 and US downgrades.