What Is the Yield Curve?
The yield curve plots government bond yields from short to long maturities. Normal, flat and inverted shapes, what moves each end and how traders read it.
CFD education by market group.
The yield curve plots government bond yields from short to long maturities. Normal, flat and inverted shapes, what moves each end and how traders read it.
Yield to maturity is the annual return if you buy a bond today and hold it to maturity. A 5% 5-year bond bought at $950 yields about 6.19%. How to calculate it.
Treasury bills mature in a year or less with no coupon; notes in 2 to 10 years and bonds in 20 or 30 years, paying interest twice a year. How the three compare.
After the September 2022 mini-budget, 30-year gilt yields jumped about 140 bp in three days, LDI funds faced margin calls and the BoE pledged £65 billion.
In May 2013 Bernanke said the Fed could slow bond buying; the 10-year yield rose from 1.6% to 3% by September and EM currencies fell. What happened and why.
Real yield = nominal − inflation, or (1 + nominal) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1. A 4.2% bond with 3% inflation yields about 1.17% real. How to calculate and read it.
Investment-grade bonds have higher ratings and lower yields; high-yield bonds pay more for higher default risk and act more like stocks. How they compare.
An inverted yield curve means short-term yields exceed long-term ones, usually as markets expect cuts. It preceded past recessions, but 2022–2024 did not. Why.
A bond is a loan that pays a coupon and repays face value at maturity. How bonds work, how they are priced, why prices fall when rates rise and the main risks.
A credit spread is the extra yield a corporate bond pays over a government bond. How it is calculated, what widening and narrowing signal and recent extremes.
Breakeven inflation = nominal Treasury yield − TIPS yield. With the 10-year at 4.20% and TIPS at 1.90%, markets imply about 2.3% inflation. How to read it.
Fixed coupons are worth less when new bonds pay more, so prices fall until yields match. A 4% 10-year bond drops about 7.7% if yields rise to 5%. Why it occurs.